Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) reported last week the lamb market has been reactive this month, but prices are up nearly 20 per cent from December.

MLA market information analysts, Erin Lukey and Emily Tan, said heavy and trade lamb indicators were hovering at around 700 cents per kilogram carcase weight (cwt) last week. They added higher prices and supply illustrate a shift in market confidence.

The analysts said the national sheep flock is the largest it's been since 2007, currently sitting at 78.75 million head, due to historically large numbers of breeding ewes and high marking rates.

January is on track to have the highest lamb yardings since 2019 and prices have almost returned to January 2023 levels, according to Lukey and Tan, who said record rainfall over summer boosted producer confidence.

However, the analysts warned if producers are unable to compete with quality stock, or prices are not sufficient to sell, there is a risk that lambs may miss their window for the market.

 

FEW OPTIONS FOR HOGGETS

Lukey and Tan said discount of mutton compared to lamb has left producers considering their options once lambs age out of the lamb market.

"This has possibly caused an increase in lamb retention and higher hogget numbers looking for a market," they said.

"Currently, producers with hoggets have few options, either sell into the mutton market at a discount price to lamb, or hold onto stock and possibly put pressure on land capacity."

While MLA does not have a hogget indicator, MLA Livestock Market Operators enter certain characteristics into the National Livestock Reporting Service system at different levels of detail, and some include when stock is in the hogget category.

Lukey and Tan said while the information should not be taken as complete coverage of the hogget market through saleyards, it shows hoggets were fetching a 33 per cent premium over mutton in saleyards on average in 2023, however added there was significant variability from 118 per cent to -2 per cent.

They said the proportion of hogget yardings, in relation to total sheep and lamb yardings, tends to increase during periods where producers would be more interested in destocking, such as during drier periods.

"In 2024, hogget prices have started strong in comparison to mutton prices and received an average premium of 86 per cent through saleyards," Lukey and Tan said.

"Despite high throughput of sheep this year, the hogget proportion of sheep yardings has dropped from 13 per cent last month, to 10 per cent this year to date."