ABARES executive director, Dr Jared Greenville, said the reduction was to be expected after the records broken in the past three years.

"The value of agricultural production will still reach $79 billion in 2023-24, which is an expected fall given the circumstances," Greenville said.

"We are expecting exports to follow suit, falling by 17 per cent to $65 billion in 2023-24, which would be the third highest result on record.

"The latest seasonal outlooks see an expectation of drier conditions as we move away from three years of exceptional La Nina weather patterns.

"Looking further ahead, it's likely we will see either El Nino or a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the coming months, which will reduce crop yields."

Crop production in 2023-24 is forecast to fall by 34 per cent from record production volume in 2022-23, while domestic prices for most crops are also expected to fall.

"Prices both in Australia and overseas will also ease, as global production increases world supply," Greenville said. 

The results are more mixed for the livestock sector, with slight increases expected in production across beef, sheep and milk, but a drop in the value of livestock production to $35 billion in 2023-24 are predicted because of lower prices.

"This is down to a number of factors, such as less demand for restocking, and like crops, we expect global production to pick up," Greenville said.

"We are also expecting a strong 2023-24 for the wool market.

"Strong demand for Australian from China is forecast to increase wool prices, with production values expected to rise by $175 million in 2023-24."

The June quarter Agricultural Commodities Report is available here: ABARES website.