The agribusiness banking specialist said after the record production achieved in 2016/17, early indicators pointed to a return to five-year average annual production levels this season, based on total hectares planted and a net average start to the season across the country.  

Rabobank said considerable downside risks exist due to unfavourable climate forecasts during the growing season. 

Rabobank senior grains and oilseeds analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon says many growers are already finished or well over half-way through their planting programmes. It is expected most will be completed in the first weeks of June with overall total planted hectares forecasted to remain virtually unchanged on the 2016/17 season. 

“Wheat planted area is likely to be steady year-on-year, while hectares planted to barley and oats are forecast to down by approximately seven per cent and 11% respectively – the collateral of lower cereal prices,” Kalisch Gordon said.

“Despite low wheat prices and the attraction to plant more profitable crops, many growers will be continuing their wheat rotations as planned this season, instead substituting barley and oats planting with more profitable crop types,” she said.