The BOM says August to October rainfall is likely to be above median for most of Australia and in some areas of Western Australia there are near-equal chances of a wetter or drier three months. Parts of western Tasmania are likely to see below median rainfall.
Maximum temperatures for August to October are likely to be above median for the northern tropics, and western and south-eastern parts of Australia. For south-east Queensland, extending into north-east New South Wales, below median daytime temperatures are more likely.
Above median minimum temperatures for August to October are likely Australia-wide.
According to the BOM, large parts of the eastern Indian Ocean are warmer than average, with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event looking likely.
The BOM says this can favour above average winter-spring rainfall for parts of Australia.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral, with three of seven models suggesting La Niña thresholds may be reached during spring.
La Niña increases the chances of above average spring rainfall for much of eastern and northern Australia.
