Acting ABARES executive director Peter Gooday said the latest forecast – released on Tuesday – was around 16 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015–16.

“Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to increase by 6.7% to $47.5 billion in 2016–17, following a modest increase of 1.4% in 2015–16 to $44.6 billion,” Gooday said.

“The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 14.7% to $31.7 billion in 2016–17.

“This is due in part to recent record high winter crop production of 52.4 million tonnes and forecast increases in the gross value of horticulture and cotton production.”

The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016–17 are wheat (up 25%), wool (3%), sugar (23%), wine (3%), barley (15%), cotton (56%), chickpeas (74%), lamb (4%), canola (33%) and rock lobster (6%).

The forecast increases in export earnings are expected to be partly offset by forecast falls in beef and veal (down 17%), live feeder/slaughter cattle (17%), and mutton (12%). Export earnings for dairy products are expected to remain unchanged.

“The gross value of livestock production is forecast to fall by 2% to $28.5 billion in 2016–17, following an estimated 7.7% increase in 2015–16,” Gooday said.

The December quarter edition of Agricultural Commodities is available at ABARES Publications.