Thanks to support from John Deere, Kondinin Group has engaged Dr David Stephens from Agrometeorology Australia to produce these maps for Kondinin Group members for the 2021 cropping season.
STATUS: JULY 19, 2021 according to Dr Stephens:
Agrometeorology Australia runs the STIN crop model to calculate shire wheat yields for the last 100 years. Based on this, the 2021 crop can be compared and ranked with all other years.
Assuming an average finish to the season, crop yield rankings are above median in much of the grain-belt, with a very large crop indicated in Western Australia.
Large crops are also indicated in New South Wales, Queensland and western South Australia.
Two regions in south-eastern South Australia and northern Victoria, have lower rankings due to relatively dry soils and a less favourable start.
In Western Australia, a classic wet "old time winter" has reduced yield rankings in the wetter south-west due to waterlogging and increased nitrogen leaching.
Wetter soils and waterlogging are also indicated in far southern Victoria.
Overall, a bumper national crop is indicated with high yield rankings shown in the big grain producing shires.
It will be difficult to see rankings declining from this point with so many climate indicators pointing in a positive direction.
Farming Ahead will continue to publish these monthly maps along with Dr Stephens' insights, thanks to support from John Deere.
High resolution PDF: July-August 2021 Yield rank prediction