The 1 June Wheatcast has the median expectation for 2022 at 2.57 tonnes per hectare which is well above the long-term average of 1.82t/ha.

The forecast is largely driven by the past 30 years' weather data, the timing of the break of the season (15 May nationally) across 202 recorded sites, and the median Plant Available soil Water (PAW). Currently, PAW is 133mm, with a range of 14-200mm, across the 202 sites used to make the forecast.

Around the states, the median expectation for 2022 for New South Wales is 2.82t/ha which is above the 15-year NSW average. Currently, PAW in NSW is 154mm, with a range of 28-200mm across 63 sites used to make the forecast.

The median expectation for Queensland for 2022 is 2.08t/ha which is above the 15-year state average of 1.58t/ha. Currently, PAW in Queensland is 178mm, with a range of 162-189 mm across the 10 sites used to make the forecast. PAW has declined by 14mm since the last forecast a fortnight ago.

In Western Australia, the median expectation for 2022 is 2.21 t/ha which is above the 15-year WA average of 1.73t/ha. Currently, PAW is 118mm, with a range of 25-155 mm across the 61 sites used to make the forecast.

For Victoria, the median expectation is 2.93t/ha, above the 15-year state average of 2.02t/ha. PAW in Victoria is currently at 131mm, with a range of 50-159mm, across the 29 sites used to make the forecast.

And in South Australia, the median expectation for 2022 is 2.57t/ha which is above the long-term SA average of 1.87t/ha. Current PAW in SA is 104mm, with a range of 14-175mm across the 39 sites used to make the forecast. PAW has increased by 26mm since the previous forecast a fortnight ago.